|Subject: New Matilda: East Timor: Ramos
East Timor: Ramos Horta Rising
Wednesday 25 April 2007
ĎHorta, Horta,í a young businessman chanted as he greeted me on Election Day in Dili. Only a year earlier, this businessman had raised money for FRETILIN. He was from the west part of East Timor and had also supported fugitive <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfredo_Reinado>Alfredo Alves Reinado. As he sat with his friends around the table of a bistro in one of Diliís flashiest hotels, the mood was happy, even jubilant.
In this desperately poor country, political loyalty is closely linked to opportunity ≠ for oneís family and friends. But nationalism and nation-building still run deep.
In East Timorís recent Presidential elections, Diliís young urban elite wanted change. They voted for a candidate who looked good, spoke English and was able to represent East Timor to the rest of the world. Like most urban elites, they wanted a candidate who would address them directly ≠ and promise them a future role in government, the public service, development and education.
Only one candidate met these requirements for Diliís young urban elite and that was Josť Ramos Horta.
Itís difficult, if not impossible, to predict elections in East Timor. The final days of campaigning in Dili were deceptive and, although the FRETILIN rally was the best attended, it was Ramos Horta who ultimately triumphed in the capital. East Timorís voters are becoming younger ≠ this election, 66,000 young people voted for the first time. And for the young urban elite, it was another festa where attending a FRETILIN rally was based more on family obligation than any real independent desire.
Many of Diliís young urban elite feel excluded by FRETILIN (who currently control Parliament). They have either returned from studying abroad on scholarships or have studied in a local university, with no promise of employment at the end. The problem is not so much a lack of money for education ≠ but just spending the allocated budget.
Former FRETILIN Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri is no great radical: politically, he falls closer to Australian Labor Leader Kevin Rudd than to Venezuelan President Hugo ChŠvez. While Alkatiri bargained hard with Australia to get a fair deal on the Timor Gap oil and gas fields, FRETILINís development agenda was applauded ≠ and closely engineered ≠ by the World Bank and a couple of well-placed Australian public servants.
While FRETILIN retains its emotional pull for their parentsí generation, for the children of the Resistance it has become simply a political Party that has governed poorly. Many believe the propaganda that Alkatiri distributed guns to civilians ≠ repeated by Indonesiaís Metro TV and honoured by last yearís Gold Walkley being awarded to Liz Jackson and the ABCís Four Corners ≠ despite the fact that evidence is still thin on the ground.
'I may be a stupid person but I never distributed guns to civilians,í Ramos Horta famously proclaimed to the Democratic Partyís (PD) National Conference in October 2006. In the televised debate before the Presidential election, Ramos Horta recounted a telling anecdote. In March 2006, FRETILIN Minister Ana Pessoa had visited him. She was worried about the ĎPetitionersí (army personnel who had walked out in February in protest over poor conditions and corruption) and had gone to see Alkatiri. He had laughed. She had gone to see Horta. He had been concerned.
On the streets of Dili, last yearís crisis is seen largely as the inability or even unwillingness of Alkatiri and FRETILIN to resolve the problems caused by the Petitioners. Lu Olo, the FRETILIN candidate for President, should have responded to Ramos Hortaís claim. But Lu Olo was absent from the TV debate ≠ he had decided to campaign on nearby Atauro Island instead.
Ramos Horta cannily used the East Timorese and international media ≠ especially local television, which broadcasts only in Dili ≠ to its full potential. In disregard of East Timorís electoral laws and in a country not yet beset by paid political advertising, the incumbent President Xanana Gusm„o, sat next to Ramos Horta and Alberto Ricardo da Silva (Bishop of Dili) in what became a sombre yet blatant election statement.
In the days following the election, the residents of Diliís internally displaced peopleís (IDP) camps closely studied the results in the cityís newspapers. Diliís security situation has deteriorated further since late last year, and some camps have expanded. ĎItís difficult to know how weíre going to solve the internally-displaced situation in the camps,í one senior FRETILIN official told me. ĎAlthough Ramos Horta doesnít know what to do either,í he quickly added.
I revisited the district of Kintal Kiik next to Diliís main market, half burnt down in May-June last year and then plagued by gang violence from August onwards. Most of its residents are still living in IDP camps, although there was the hopeful sign of the local garage opening once again and the woman selling household goods at a kiosk welcomed me with a smile, instead of last yearís nervous fear.
ĎWe want to go and rebuild our houses, but we still donít have security if we move back there,í a former resident of Kintal Kiik living in Don Bosco IDP Camp told me. Now with the election period, many IDPs fear a shift from gang-based to political violence.
In Dili, FRETILINís candidate Lu Olo polled badly ≠ he placed third after the Social Democratic Association of Timorís (ASDT) Xavier do Amaral. The PDís Fernando ĎLasamaí Araujo came a close fourth.
But Dili is not East Timor. FRETILIN won outright in the eastern areas of Baucau, Lautem and Viqueque and the overall vote meant that Lu Olo polled higher than any other candidate.
Can Ramos Horta become the next President? That depends largely on whether people will vote for him in the western parts of East Timor. If <http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/special_report/1999/05/99/east_timor/1916419.stm>do Amaralís ASDT and its massive support base in the <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mambai>Mambae areas of Aileu, Ainaro and Manufahi swing behind Ramos Horta, which looks increasingly likely, then he can.
Can Xanana become the next Prime Minister? The Presidential run off in early May is a curtain raiser for the main event ≠ the General Elections on 30 June.
Ramos Horta and Xanana need to organise <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Congress_for_Timorese_Reconstruction>their new CNRT Party in less than two months. PD, which was formed six years ago, has been slowly building and consolidating its support base in the western areas and won outright during the Presidential elections in Oecusse, Bobonaro, Covalima and Ermera.
Both elections will be won in the west ≠ this is where most of East Timorís people live. The more interesting question is whether a highly centralised Xanana-Ramos Horta team backed by the new CNRT will be able to form a Government in coalition with ASDT and more importantly, the PD. 
About the author
Carmela Baranowska is a Rory Peck and Walkley award-winning journalist and filmmaker. She recently directed Lives on the Edge, a documentary on East Timorís recent crisis through the eyes of three displaced people, for Al Jazeeraís Witness program.