| Subject: Defence
Analysts Split Over Likelihood of Militia Violence The Australian 25 October 1999
By Foreign affairs and defence writer ROBERT GARRAN
AUSTRALIAN defence analysts are divided over the likelihood
of continuing militia violence in East Timor.
Although there is growing optimism that the regular
elements of the Indonesian military (TNI) have abandoned support for pro-Jakarta militia
in East Timor, there is continuing evidence of support from the Indonesian special forces
(Kopassus), Australian officials believe.
The optimistic assessment, if borne out in coming weeks,
would mean the long-feared campaign by militia against Interfet was unlikely, and that the
Australian-led peace force could be replaced by UN peacekeepers as early as Christmas.
But continued training of militia by Kopassus suggests that
the danger of clashes with Interfet forces remains.
Those who give an optimistic assessment believe that with
the passage last week in the Indonesian People's Consultative Assembly of the vote
ratifying East Timor's independence, there is little to be gained by further TNI support
for the militia.
There is still a risk that militia members, abandoned by
the TNI but unwilling to return to East Timorese society, would continue attacks on
Interfet and on East Timorese communities.
"But that's a vastly different threat to a full scale
Indonesian-backed insurgency operation," one source said.
Details of the transition from the Australian-led
International Force East Timor (Interfet) to the UN Transitional Authority in East Timor
(Untaet) are nearing completion in New York, with a vote on the plans due today.
Brazilian Sergio Vieira de Mello is expected to be named as
administrator of the territory, but the leadership of the peacekeeping element of the
authority remains uncertain.
Australia will play a leading role in the UN force and will
contribute several thousand personnel, but the change will allow a reduction in
Australia's heavy deployment, which last week included 4850 Australians out of the total
Interfet deployment in East Timor of 6700.
Alan Dupont, director of the Asia-Pacific security program
at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre in Canberra, supported the growing optimism of
Australian officials over security conditions in East Timor.
"There is far less likelihood now of a major guerrilla
campaign being waged across the border," he said.
"There are now some signs coming out of Jakarta, out
of TNI, that they're no longer supporting the militia."
"It's still early days, and there may still be
clashes, but there is a very important difference between autonomous actions by small
groups of militias and a major campaign supported by TNI."
Among the positive signs were defence chief General
Wiranto's call for joint border patrols and the safe-guarding of refugees returning to
East Timor.
The prospect that President Abdurrahman Wahid would appoint
a new defence minister would also inhibit the elements of TNI supporting the militia, he
said.
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